President Donald Trump’s cross-demographic electoral coalition has frayed significantly ahead of the midterm elections, marked by double-digit declines among younger voters, Hispanic constituents, and key geographic areas that powered his 2024 victory. According to the latest findings from the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, broad dissatisfaction across key voting blocs has weakened the political alliance that previously swept key battleground states.
The national survey reveals that Trump’s standing among overall registered voters has dropped to a net approval rating of -19, a sharp slide from the -7 net approval recorded at the start of his second term. The decline has manifested most acutely within voter demographics that historically leaned Democratic but shifted toward Trump in his 2024 presidential victory, raising clear challenges for Republican candidates facing tight congressional races.
Demographic Shifts Erode Broad Support
The coalition that returned Trump to the White House relied heavily on unprecedented gains among groups outside the traditional Republican base. However, survey data shows that support across these vital constituencies has eroded steadily over the past two years.
Among Latino voters, the president's net approval rating plunged from -22 at the start of his term to -38 in the latest measure. An even steeper drop occurred among younger adults aged 18 to 34, where net approval sank 25 percentage points, falling from -28 to -53. Among Black respondents, net sentiment deteriorated from -55 to -67, reversing earlier inroads made during the 2024 campaign cycle.
Geographic sentiment has similarly shifted. Across the American South—a traditional bedrock of conservative electoral power—Trump's net approval flipped into negative territory, moving from +2 in 2025 to -20 in the most recent poll.
Erosion Within the Base and Turnout Disparities
While rank-and-file Republicans largely continue to back the administration, the survey identified noticeable soft spots within self-described conservative voters. Approval among respondents identifying as Trump voters slipped from a net +85 in 2025 to a net +65 in the current survey.
Self-identified Republicans still grant the president an overall 82% approval rating, while individuals who identify directly with the MAGA movement record 90% approval. Despite that core alignment, an enthusiasm gap threatens midterm mobilization. Registered Democrats report interest levels in the upcoming election that are 10 points higher than those reported by Republicans, posing an organizational risk in narrow battleground districts where voter turnout determines legislative control.
| Demographic / Segment | Early Second Term / 2025 Net Approval | Current Survey Net Approval | Net Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Registered Voters | -7 | -19 | -12 pts |
| Ages 18–34 | -28 | -53 | -25 pts |
| Latino Voters | -22 | -38 | -16 pts |
| Black Voters | -55 | -67 | -12 pts |
| Southern Region | +2 | -20 | -22 pts |
| Self-Described Trump Voters | +85 | +65 | -20 pts |
Economic Worries and Institutional Concerns
The survey underscores persistent public anxiety over living costs alongside deep partisan concerns regarding congressional governance. Regardless of political alignment, voters expressed widespread worry that Congress will fail to do enough to lower consumer prices.
Beyond cost-of-living concerns, voters demonstrated polarized fears over the legislative balance of power, as documented in the CNBC midterm polling analysis. When asked about potential outcomes of congressional control, 44% of respondents cited their biggest worry under Republican leadership as allowing President Trump to operate beyond his constitutional authority. Conversely, 28% of registered voters indicated that their primary concern under Democratic majorities would be the passage of policies favored by Democratic Socialists.
The bipartisan poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide was conducted between Oct. 14 and Oct. 18 by Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies. The survey carries an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, providing verified baseline data ahead of the nationwide vote.
